SUMMARY:
Bernie Sanders'
supporters were
passionate in
2016, and again
in 2020.
In 2016,
a surprising
percentage
of Sanders'
primary voters
decided to vote
for Donald Trump
in the general
election.
For 2016,
one reason
for that was
that traditional
Democrats
tried to keep
Sanders away
from a nomination
( revealed in the
stolen DNC e-mails).
Well,
just before
the many 2020
"Super Tuesday"
primaries,
almost all
of the other
Democrats
suspiciously
ganged up on
Sanders again !
If Biden is
nominated
in 2020, will
a surprising
percentage of
Sanders
supporters
supporters
vote for
Trump again,
giving us a
"deja vu all over again" ?
( Lawrence "Yogi" Berra )
DETAILS:
Hillary Clinton
was expected
to beat Trump
in 2016.
I expected that too,
especially after
the October surprise
Billy Bush video !
Hillary did
beat Trump
in California
by 4,269,978
popular votes,
but lost the
49 other states
by 1,405,002
popular votes
So,
in total,
Hillary
beat Trump
by 2,864,974
in the
nationwide
popular vote.
Democrats
in 2016
primaries
and caucuses
preferred
Hillary Clinton
over
Bernie Sanders,
mainly because
they thought
she was
likely to win,
while Bernie
would lose.
During the Democrat
primaries in 2016,
polls showed that
Sander's fans were
far more passionate
about him, than fans
of Hillary Clinton
were passionate
about her.
Hillary Clinton has
presented over
one dozen reasons
why she lost in 2016,
none involving her own
lack of political skills
and charisma.
Clinton has
blamed her loss
on Vladimir Putin,
and on Sanders,
among others.
If Biden is nominated,
and also loses to Trump,
will he also blame Putin
and Sanders ?
Most Democrat
National Committee
personnel claim
Hillary lost
in 2016 because
"her base" didn’t
turn out to vote,
while Trump’s did.
Clinton did appear
to have a problem
getting ALL
the voters
who had voted
for Barack Obama
in 2012
( some Obama
votes in 2012,
voted for Donald
Trump in 2016 ).
Those Obama-Trump
voters could explain
why Clinton lost.
But I disagree,
based on The
Cooperative
Congressional
Election Study
( CCES )
-- a massive
election survey
of around
50,000 people.
That 2017 study,
was led by
Brian Shaffner
of Tufts and
Harvard
Universities,
and reported
that:
Vermont:
12% of Sanders'
primary voters,
later voted
for Donald Trump
on Election Day.
Wisconsin:
9% of Sanders'
primary voters,
later voted
for Trump.
Those 51,317
Sanders - Trump
voters were
much larger than
Trump’s 22,747-vote
victory-margin
over Hillary Clinton
in the general election.
Michigan:
8% of Sanders'
primary voters,
later voted for Trump.
Those 47,915
Sanders - Trump
voters were
much larger than
Trump’s 10,704-vote
victory-margin
over Hillary Clinton
in the general election.
Pennsylvania:
16% of Sanders'
primary voters,
later voted
for Trump.
Those 117,101
Sanders - Trump
voters were
larger than
Trump’s 44,292-vote
victory-margin
over Hillary Clinton
in the general election.
Sanders primary voters
realized the Democrat
National Committee
fixed the rules to favor
a Clinton nomination.
It is believed that
a higher percentage
of Clinton supporters
in 2016 would have
voted for
Bernie Sanders,
had he been nominated,
than the percentage
of Sanders' supporters
who actually voted
for Hillary Clinton
in the 2016 election.
Meaning that
Bernie Sanders
may have had
a better chance
of winning in 2016
than Hillary Clinton did.
I'm not sure of that.
There were also
some Democrats
back in 2016
unwilling to vote
for "socialist"
Bernie Sanders.
Now let's consider
the 2020 election:
I believe Democrats
today are more likely
to accept a socialist
like Bernie Sanders,
than they were in 2016.
Bernie Sanders
has not changed,
from 2016 to 2020.
And his supporters
are still passionate.
How many of
Sanders' fans
in 2020 will NOT
vote for Biden,
if he gets the
Democrat
nomination ?
I don't have
the answer,
but that's worth
thinking about !
