Friday, October 14, 2016

Ignore Hillary ahead by +11 points poll --- Part 2

This is a followup to my original "+11 points" Tuesday post:

The +11 percentage point lead over Trump was misleading.

That poll was conducted with timing precisely chosen to slam Trump.

It was conducted BEFORE the Sunday debate, and AFTER continuous demonization of Trump, everywhere in the media, for an intended-to-be-private, one-on-one conversation on a bus in 2005.

A few hours after my Tuesday post, the same polling company released new data including people polled AFTER the debate.

I needed some time to review the new data and write this -- today was the first time since Tuesday that I was online to post this report.

The new poll included people contacted BEFORE and AFTER the debate, and showed Hillary ahead of Trump by +9 points.

People contacted AFTER the debate had Hillary ahead by +7 points.

The +11 points BEFORE, and +7 points AFTER, averaged a +9 points lead.

The +4 point improvement AFTER the debate, with the +11 lead shrinking to a +7 lead, is evidence Trump won the first debate
(as I previously opined on this blog).


The polling company still has a pro-Democrat bias:
(1) Too many Democrats were polled, and

(2) They "forgot" to mention: The +7 point Hillary lead AFTER the debate was EXACTLY the same as the +7 point lead Hillary had in their mid-September poll !

But even the +7 point lead is biased, because respondents did not match national voter registration percentages:

National party registration reflects a 5-point gap between Republicans and Democrats, but the Hart Poll reflects a 7-point gap.

That 2-point larger gap could have added +2 percentage points to Hillary's total percentage.

If I delete the potential +2 bias, Hillary's +7 point lead shrinks to +5 percentage points.

+5 percentage points is still a big lead -- I don't recall any presidential candidate in my lifetime closing a +5 point gap within one month.


A + 5 point Hillary lead is way down from the original +11 percentage point lead in my first post on this subject (from the first article I read on the Hart poll).

Approximate National Voter Registration:
32%  Democrat
27%  Republican
40%  Independent 

For the 9-point gap BEFORE and AFTER debate poll,
respondents self-identified as:

44%  Democrat and Democrat leaners 
37%  Republican and Republican leaners
12%  Independents
  7%  Other and not sure

details of the 44%:
25%  Strong Democrat
  9%  Not very strong Democrat
10%  Independent / lean Democrat
44%  Total Democrat and Democrat leaners

details of the 37%:
19%  Strong Republican
  8%  Not very strong Republican
10%  Independent / lean Republican
37%  Total Republican and Republican leaners

Also from the poll:
For people contacted BEFORE the Sunday debate, 67% of Republicans said that GOP House and Senate candidates should back Trump.

For people contacted AFTER the Sunday' debate, 83% of Republicans said that GOP House and Senate candidates should back Trump.

Facts about the biased poll:

Poll done by Hart Research

The President of Hart Research Associates, Geoff Garin, is also working for Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

Hart Research received $220,500 in the month of September 2016, from Hillary Clinton’s Priorities USA Super-PAC.

NBC (S Burke) and the Wall Street Journal (Murdoch) contacted Geoff Garin (Hart Research Associates) for the post-debate poll data.