Trump predicts massive recession

CNN was on TV in the background as I wrote the article that follows -- suddenly I heard Trump had predicted a "massive recession".

I can't recall any other Presidential candidate in my lifetime ever predicting a recession.

In fact, hardly anyone predicts a recession -- we're usually 3 to 6 months into a recession before most economists realize we're in one!

Sure, some perma-bears always expect a recession, so they might seem "right" in about two years of every decade ... like a stopped clock is right twice a day!

The last recession started December 2007, so it's likely another recession will start before December 2017 -- more than a full decade between two recessions is rare.

The US economy was weak in 4Q 2015.

The Atlanta Fed is now predicting only a 0.1% annual growth rate for 1Q 2016.

Their "predictions" just after the quarter ends have been accurate in the past.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1

The official first "advance" 1Q 2016 GDP estimate will be April 28.

Right now I believe there's a 50% probability of a recession starting in 2016.

But before I call the start of a recession, I need to see weekly data showing a significant bad news trend.

One example would be weekly new claims for unemployment insurance in a sharply rising trend, and up 10% to 15% from the trough.

We don't have that yet.  

A CNN news reader with the odd name "Poppy Harlow" dismissed Trump's claim because 'he's not an economist'.

I burst out laughing -- as a group, economists have NEVER predicted a recession, much less a "massive recession". 

Most economists are perpetually optimistic for two reasons:
(1) Most are employed by financial firms that make more money when their customers are bullish and greedy, not bearish and fearful of a recession, and 

(2) In a typical decade the economy is in a recession no more than two years out of ten -- so being bullish all the time makes an economist right at least 80% of the time … without thinking