Friday, December 30, 2022

The Growing Gap Between Reality and Pop Science

 "Grand claims about millions of lives being saved by vaccination are not falsifiable as they rest again on averting hypothetical counterfactual scenarios in which many more deaths would supposedly have occurred without the vaccination campaign. But these deaths may occur only in the virtual world of computer modeling and may be averted only for a short time. Policy should be based on factual information and the big picture.

Government programs need to be rigorously evaluated, particularly when they affect public health and individual rights. The objectives should be clear, whereas in this case they were vague and constantly shifting. And the outcomes data should be straightforward, whereas in this case they depend on complex and variable statistical processing of small samples.

Policymakers and politicians have been making big calls on the basis of uncertain data. They need to know for sure that the pandemic is being substantially moderated by policy settings and not prolonged.

The primary goal of government strategies should have been to prevent excess mortality, yet excess mortality remained high through 2022, peaking at just over 23 percent (UK) and over 10 percent (US) (see OWiD again). There is no hard evidence that excess mortality was reduced over the past two or three years overall.

How can continuing the mass vaccination campaign be justified if the population already has equivalent immunity, vaccination increases the risk of infection (and adverse effects), and other benefits are uncertain? 

The WHO, government agencies and scientists started in 2020 with the proclaimed goal of ‘controlling the pandemic’ which evolved towards the hope that COVID-19 vaccination could ‘end the pandemic.’ It didn’t.

They soon had to concede that vaccinations would not provide full protection against transmission or infection, but maintained they were ‘substantially effective’ against infection. 

And yet everyone got infected, many times over in some cases. 

Failure is being spun as a triumph – but is it a triumph of misinformation? Is it a grand illusion?"