NOTE: This post was significantly expanded the next day, which I almost never do. At 4:00am Saturday, I woke up thinking about 2022 Covid death counts in the middle of the night (a strange dream), and then significantly expanded this Covid rap ( "Covid ranting and raving", to leftists ). Why couldn't I wake with a new hit song in my mind, or some new formula to cure baldness? Not me, I wake up thinking about the accuracy of Covid death counts in 2022. Maybe I should get my head examined? Hopefully, they will find nothing. ... See, I even wake up spouting lame jokes.
I rarely make predictions, and almost always ignore predictions. I usually delete them from articles on my blogs. They are too often wrong to be taken seriously. Prior to this year, my last prediction was in 1997. And my early 2022 Covid prediction may be the last prediction I ever make. Back in 1997, on the day I began studying climate science, I made the following low risk climate prediction, which remains correct so far: "The climate will get warmer, unless it gets colder".
Predicting the end of the Covid pandemic this Summer is not a low risk prediction.
Because Democrats WANT a strong fear of Covid in the Fall to justify mailing absentee ballots to everyone on state voter rolls. There are millions of names on those lists, of people who have left the state, or died. The names almost never get taken off. Therefore, millions of extra absentee ballots can get mailed out. Democrats have devious ways of getting absentee ballots turned in, even when they were not filled out by legal voters, or not filled out by the person whose name is on the envelope. Democrats did that in 2020, to win the presidency because they are smarmy, horrible people, with no morals. They seek great political power, and winning elections, by any means necessary, is their first step. Democrats want lots of absentee ballots sent out in 2022. Trying to keep the Covid scaremongering going is one way to get what they want. And fake Covid death statistics would do that,
Omicron Will "Crowd Out" Covid in 2022
Covid19 has not disappeared. But it is much less common in 2022, than in 2021 and 2020. My medical logic for a prediction was that Omicron infections were dominant in 2022, rather than Covid infections. Omicron has the same mild symptoms as any other coronavirus common cold. Therefore, Omicron should be called a common cold. Calling Omicron a Covid variant is scaremongering, and misleading.
Seasonality Trends
Warm weather tends to significantly reduce respiratory infection spread, so the low deaths with Covid count right now in 2022 is typical and proves nothing. I'm not demanding a Nobel Prize right now for my end of Covid pandemic prediction. If an honest death with Covid count remains low in Fall and Winter 2022, then the Covid pandemic is over. There may be many Omicron infections in late 2022, but there is no such thing as a common cold pandemic. Not with the extremely low infection fatality rate of Omicron. Which is a common cold.
Covid Death Counts in 2020 and 2022
We have never had counts of deaths FROM Covid. What we have had is counts of deaths after a positive Covid test in the past 28 days. In 2020 there were about 20% excess deaths in the US. Most must have been due to Covid. There were a similar percentage of excess deaths in 2021. Showing the Covid vaccines had no effect on excess deaths. Most excess deaths in 2021 were Covid deaths, but some were deaths caused by Covid vaccines. There were other rising causes of death: Homicides, suicides and drug overdoses. And people avoiding needed tests at hospitals in 2020 and 2021, when they were filled with Covid patients. Added together, all these causes of excess deaths can not explain much of the 20% total excess deaths in 2020 and 2021, compared with pre-Covid 2019. Meaning the wrong methodology of counting Covid deaths -- counting deaths WITH Covid, and calling them deaths FROM Covid, did not result in obviously wrong Covid death counts in 2020 and 2021.
Covid death counts in 2022 are likely to be a deception
In 2022, with Omicron counted as a Covid variant (which it is not, except indirectly), the deaths with Covid count will become a deception. Deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test, when Omicron is falsely considered to be a Covid variant, will result in false Covid death counts. The explanation is simple. If we tested people for common colds in 2022, there would be plenty of positives in the US. If we then counted deaths within 28 days of positive common cold tests to be "common cold deaths", there would be about 500,000 "common cold deaths", And that would obviously be a deception. The same methodology appears to be used for Omicron positive tests in 2022. If you test positive for Omicron, and die from ANY cause in the next 28 days, you are a "Covid death".
I would like to hope that counting methodology would never be used with Omicron as the dominant infection. Just like any other common cold, death from Omicron is very rare. But that is reality, and reality may not be reflected in 2022 "Covid death counts", which could be used to keep the Covid scaremongering going up to the 2022 elections, even though the 2022 Covid death counts would be a lie.
Would Democrats promote such a lie about Covid deaths? They sure would, to help win 2022 elections, by getting lots of absentee ballots automatically sent out to inaccurate voter rolls. My three blogs exist because Democrats lie, mislead and censor, which will increase as the 2022 election approaches.
Ye Editor
