Deaths WITH COVID is not an accurate statistic, but the numbers in 2020 can be compared with 2021, even if the statistic grossly over states deaths FROM Covid in both years.
Deaths WITH Covid were mainly the elderly in 2020 -- over age 65. Of course the same elderly people could not die again in 2021.
In 2021, deaths with Covid variants affected a much larger number of Americans under age 65 than in 2020. 3Q 2021 was particularly deadly for that age group.
Quarterly deaths are volatile: In 2020, 2Q and 4Q were particularly deadly for Americans over age 65.
If you look at deaths WITH Covid under age 65 in 2021, the number is significantly higher for that age group than in 2020, and even higher versus 2019, pre-Covid.
Cherry pick 3Q 2021 versus 3Q 2020, and you see an even larger increase of deaths WITH Covid under age 65 in the 2021 versus 2020 (or 2019) comparison.
And that's what one insurance company executive did.
This story is about numbers. But there is usually only one number in it: +40%. That number is from one source, not known to the general public. One Indiana insurance company CEO, on a video, who said death claims for his customers in 3Q 2021 reflected deaths of age 18 through 64, up +40% from 2019.
Conservatives were quick to assume that +40% 3Q 2021 percentage versus 2019 also applied to 4Q 2020 versus 4Q 2019. Some ignored 2019 and assumed second half 2021 deaths under age 65 were +40% above the second half 2020 deaths under age 65. Many assumed, or at least implied, the Covid vaccines were the cause of increased deaths under age 65, rather than Covid itself. That is a strange assumption, because we all know deaths WITH Covid were higher in 2021 than in 2020.
Unfortunately, no conservative reporter that I've read, and there are many, ever investigated that one source, and his one number, for one quarter of one year. It appears that they wanted evidence the Covid vaccines were deadly, and such evidence seems to have been handed to them by a person from the private sector, rather from than some untrustworthy government bureaucrat.
The insurance company mentioned had 0.7% of the US life insurance market in 2019. Only about half of American adults have life insurance. That means one CEO speaks for about 0.35% of the US adult population, and they were all his customers, not Americans selected at random.
Does the author of any article on the subject believe that a tiny 0.35% non-random sample of the US population, in one quarter of one year, for one small (#35) insurance company, is sufficient to know total US deaths in 2021?
I do not.
There are many questions that need to be answered, but they are not even asked by people who call themselves "investigative reporters" on conservative websites.
Why is it that we have no supporting data, or details, other than an obviously rounded off 40% number, from one person, at one relatively small company, about one quarter (3Q), in one year (2021), versus 2019?
How about the other three quarters of 2021?
How about a comparison of full year 2021 and full year 2020?
How about data from other insurance companies?
How about data from the CDC, which collects mortality statistics, to confirm the one insurance company CEO?
How about considering that an insurance company executive has a huge financial conflict of interest -- scaring people about death is a great way to sell life insurance !
Could it be that total US deaths in BOTH 2020 and 2021 were about +20% higher than in 2019, with deaths under age 65 increasing by a higher percentage in BOTH years?
Could it be that 2021, especially 3Q 2021, was particularly deadly for Americans under age 65 because of Covid?
If total US deaths in the second half of 2021 were unusual versus the second half of 2020, shouldn't that be reflected in total US deaths in full year 2021, versus full year 2020?
Note that if there was a 40% increase of deaths under age 65 (typically about 25% of all US deaths) in the second half of 2021, that would imply about 300,000 more deaths in 2021, than in 2020.
Could that +300,000 deaths have happened in the second half of 2021 without making total US deaths in 2021 significantly higher than in 2020?
On December 22, 2021, Robert Anderson, who heads mortality statistics for the CDC, estimated 2021 total US deaths would be slightly higher in 2021 than in 2020 (about 0.05% higher, or +15,000).
If there was a huge increase of deaths of Americans under age 65 in the last half of 2021, versus 2020, was not obvious in his 2021 total US deaths estimate.
I ask these questions because they are questions any competent journalist would want answers for. But no conservative journalists seem to care. They heard the +40% from one source, at one small life insurance company, and they liked what they heard, so not "fact checking" was done. Except here.
