Wednesday, January 26, 2022

CEO of a small insurance company in Indiana got conservatives all excited about an explosion of US deaths starting mid-2021

 Ye Editor had to provide details:

An Indiana insurance company executive allegedly claimed US deaths in 2021, for people age 18 through 64 were up +40% versus 2019, starting in mid-2021.  No comparison of 2020 versus 2021 was provided. Some conservatives immediately assumed the Covid vaccines were causing a huge spike of US deaths in 2021.

The first problem is that the CEO can only speak for life insurance customers of one small insurance company in Indiana.  And he could be biased -- scaring people about a rising death rate is a financial conflict of interest for the CEO of an insurance company. That company, OneAmerica, was only the 35th largest US insurance company in 2019, with a 0.7% market share.  In addition, about half of adult Americans do not have life insurance. So the CEO can not speak for all Americans age 18 to 64.

If Americans age 18 through 64 were dying much more often in 2021, versus 2020,
that fact should be reflected in total US deaths in 2021 versus 2020. Please note that 2020 was not mentioned by the CEO, but it was implied that 2021 was significantly more deadly than 2020. otherwise there would be no reason for him to scare people about 2021.

The only source for total US deaths per year is the CDC.  Could the CDC bias the 2021 data to make the government look better?  Yes, that is possible. There could be political pressure to under estimate total US deaths in 2021, in an effort to make the Covid vaccines look more effective. That would require estimating that 2021 deaths were LOWER than 2020 deaths, and then attributing the decline to Covid vaccines.  But that did not happen. The CDC, as of December 22, 2022, was estimating slightly more total US deaths in 2021, than in 2020, which does not make the Covid vaccines look good. 

We also know CDC deaths WITH Covid statistics. 2021 deaths WITH Covid were higher than in 2020. They are falsely called deaths FROM Covid, when they are actually deaths WITH Covid, based on an unreliable PCR test. But the methodology for Covid death counts was the same for both years, so it is fair to compare the two years.

For 2020, the CDC reported 3.384 million total US deaths, up +20% from 2019

For 2021, as of  January 22, 2022, CDC estimates 3.389 million 2021 deaths, about the same as 2020

The 3.389 million number is from me adding up all 12 months on the CDC website, as of January 22, 2022, with each month rounded to the nearest 1000 deaths, so the total may be slightly off, but should be very close.

3.384 million for 2020 versus 3.389 million in 2021, supports the CDC estimate by Robert Anderson, who is in charge of CDC mortality statistics, made on on December 22, 2021, that 2021 total US deaths will be about +15,000 higher than in 2020. 

Looking at details, among those aged 18 to 49, mortality rose dramatically in the first half of 2020, then somewhat plateaued before increasing again in the third quarter of 2021.

That's all we know now.  CDC death counts for 2021 will not be final until year end 2022.