Sunday, October 10, 2021

Some thoughts about COVID statistics -- they are complicated, and lots of questions do not yet have answers

Who Are The Unvaccinated?
The official rule is you are "unvaccinated" until two weeks after your last COVID vaccine, which could be five weeks after your first shot. That should be a unique category. It is true that your COVID antibodies are ramping up during that period (or they could already have been high, as a result of natural antibodies after recovering from COVID, before getting any shot). But you do have some of the alleged benefits from the vaccines during the period, and also most of the adverse side effects of the vaccines, as your antibodies gradually increase over the five weeks. That's not really "unvaccinated".
 
PCR  TESTS: 
I would expect vaccinated people to be far less likely to get a COVID PCR test, than the unvaccinated. In addition, if their COVID shots reduce COVID symptoms, that would further reduce their incentive to get tested. Fewer tests mean fewer infections discovered, and fewer false positives. If their COVID infection symptoms are reduced, vaccinated people could become "super spreaders" to both vaccinated and unvaccinated people, who were not infected. Having a shot would be an incentive for vaccinated people to stop social distancing, and stop avoiding crowds.

COVID  CASES:
The COVID injections do not prevent infections, so there will be plenty of COVID cases among the vaccinated.  Because the vaccinated are recommended to get a 28x CT PCR test (rather than 35x or 40x CT for the vaccinated), the number of false positives should be significantly smaller for the vaccinated. 
 
COVID  HOSPITALIZATIONS and DEATHS: 
This is where the vaccines should be causing a sharp reduction, if they work as promised. Elderly people, who were far more likely to get hospitalized or die, are the group most likely to have been vaccinated.  Unfortunately, we have that five week period between the first of two injections, and the official "fully vaccinated" date, where people hospitalized or dying as a result of vaccine side effects, or COVID infections, will be called "unvaccinated".
 
VACCINE  SIDE  EFFECTS: 
Studies of the VAERS reporting system claim 90% to 99% (the 99% was a Harvard study) of adverse side effects never get reported.  Of the hundreds of thousands of side effects that do get reported, about 43% were considered minor -- of course that means 57% were not considered minor.  These are short term side effects, and there have been virtually no autopsies to determine if deaths blamed on the vaccines were correct.  A German pathologist examined 40 German patients soon after their death blamed on COVID vaccines.  He determined that 30% to 40% of the deaths should be blamed on the vaccines, and the the other 60% to 70% could not be determined.
 
FINAL THOUGHTS:
The mRNA COVID vaccines are the most dangerous vaccines in US history, and have the shortest period of effectiveness of any vaccines in US history. They do not prevent COVID infections or spread. They may reduce COVID symptoms for a few months, but vaccine induced antibodies decline rapidly -- down at least 50% in six months.  It will be difficult to determine long term adverse side effects, but I would be shocked if they were mild, after the worst short term side effects in US vaccine history.

Social distancing works.

Masks do almost nothing.

Vitamin D supplements, or sunshine on bare skin, 
help prevent all respiratory diseases. 

For people under age 40, it is impossible to build a strong case for taking vaccines, and boosters every six to nine months, other than avoiding getting fired from your job.  And that has nothing to do with science.  

Unvaccinated people are no risk to vaccinated people, if the vaccines do what they were 'advertised' to do. 

Infected people are always a risk to others, and it does not matter if they are unvaccinated and infected, or vaccinated and infected.