Wednesday, October 13, 2021

Real science is very complicated and uncertain -- junk science is simple, certain and WRONG

Ye Editor will publish almost all of Dr. Mercola's COVID articles because he provides useful information and links to his sources. Two of them follow this COVID lecture filled with questions that need answers.

Dr. Mercola's latest article (next post) includes some paragraphs about COVID vaccines not reducing COVID case counts.

That is true, but it was already known that vaccines DO NOT PREVENT INFECTIONS, and they also encourage less social distancing, which means more infections!

So there is no reason to expect any positive effects from vaccines on the number of COVID "cases". 

I'm tired of this fact being presented as "bad news" about the COVID vaccines.  

In the future, I will avoid articles, or delete paragraphs, about vaccinated versus unvaccinated case counts.

It is COVID hospitalizations and deaths that I care about. 

Do the vaccines prevent COVID hospitalizations and deaths?

More important, and impossible to answer now: 
Will vaccinated people, as a group, have a healthier life as a result of being vaccinated, including all adverse vaccine side effects?  
 (data must be age adjusted, of course)


The next article here finally starts considering differences between "fully vaccinated" people
(14 days after their second shot, of two shots) and partially vaccinated' people (less than 14 days after their second shot, previously called "unvaccinated" people). 

Those important 14 days will include most hospitalizations and deaths due to adverse side effects from COVID vaccines, which could raise the count of "unvaccinated" people who have been hospitalized and/or died.
 

There needs to be more than three categories of people for a better understanding of COVID.  I propose seven categories:

(1) Unvaccinated people who have never been COVID infected (me!)

(2) Unvaccinated people who have survived COVID infections

(3) People who have had one of their two COVID shots

(4) People in the two weeks after their second (of two) COVID shots

(5) People more than two weeks after their second (of two) COVID shots

(6) People more than six months after their last shot, who have taken a COVID vaccine booster shot

(7) People more than six months after their last shot, who have NOT taken a COVID vaccine booster shot

For each of the seven groups, we need to know the number of hospital admissions and deaths due to any respiratory issues, and the number of hospital admissions and deaths in total, for any reason.

And these numbers will only be useful if we at least know the ages and health of the patients and victims. I assume older people, and people with serious non-COVID health problems, are more likely to get vaccinated.

Then it gets even more complicated:

There is a large seasonal trend -- more deaths in the colder months due to more time spent indoors, where it is easiest to spread viruses, and lower levels of vitamin D, from little skin exposure to sunlight during the cold months.

The COVID virus will continually mutate.

Typical virus mutations tend to be less deadly than the original, but there is no certainty of that happening.

The vaccine-induced antibodies decline rapidly, so any benefits of the vaccine will fade away without regular booster shots.

Real science is complicated, uncertain, and never settled.

Junk science is simple, certain, and almost always WRONG.