I follow the science, but also realize a lot of questions about COVID do not have answers.
I do not accept CDC "science" because they have been unreliable and biased.
The Pfizer and Moderna COVID vaccines appears to reduce the probability of needing hospitalization, or dying, from COVID19.
The effectiveness is not 100%, probably not 95%, and declines so rapidly that a booster shot is needed after six months, or less.
The vaccines are nowhere close to 95% effective for COVID21, which is what I call current COVID variants.
Early evidence suggests they are 40% to 60% effective, which is a typical range for old fashioned influenza vaccines.
We have some large real problems, and potential problems, with the COVID vaccines.
Supplementing with vitamin D can prevent respiratory illnesses -- even Grouchy Fauci does -- and ivermectin can fight COVID19 or COVID21, if taken early.
The need for a "leaky vaccine" with lots of adverse side effects can, and should, be debated.
The short term adverse side effects are the worst in US vaccine history, and at least 90% of adverse effects never get reported.
About 40% of reported adverse effects are considered mild ... but that means 60% are not mild.
The vaccine does not prevent a person from getting infected, but reduces symptoms, so an infected vaccinated person could be carrying a high viral load with no symptoms, and unintentionally infect others.
An un-vaccinated person with the same viral load would feel sick, and stay isolated at home.
The long term adverse side effects are unknown.
I believe it would be wishful thinking to assume long term adverse side effects will be mild, after short term adverse side effects have been unprecedented (bad).
The long term effect with the most potential for harm could take years to be discovered -- microscopic blood clots that block capillaries.
These blood clots would be especially dangerous for people who already have capillary damage, such as people with diabetes and high blood pressure, who already have capillary damage in their kidneys and retinas.
Not that micro blood clots would be good news for everyone else.
If people take COVID four shots every year, a person could have taken 8 to 12 shots before adverse long term side effects are discovered.
In my opinion, it is logical to assume that taking more shots will mean more long term problems.
The vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) are obviously delivering less than promised.
I guess the good news is that the Chinese vaccines are much worse. Good for them !
It's not possible to know exactly what the vaccines are accomplishing, because there are other variables that should affect COVID deaths.
(1) There's a strong seasonal trend, just like with influenza -- with the lowest death rate in the Summer
(2) COVID 19 and COVID 21 are different, so should have different death rates
(3) Doctors in 2021 have better treatments to avoid COVID deaths than in 2020
(4) Some of the most vulnerable people in nursing homes are already dead
(5) People who have recovered from COVID19 have strong antibodies, and
(6) Positive effect of the vaccines = ?
There is no way to know what the vaccines are doing right now, unless you can eliminate the five other variables.
We've had two large "death spikes" from COVID19, and we will see if there is a third large "death spike" from COVID21 in the Fall.
If there is, that would not be good news for the COVID vaccines.
NOTE: The horrible 1918 to 1920 flu had two large "death spikes", and then apparently mutated into a less deadly variant.
That happened with no vaccine or medicine.
NOTE: There was also a minor death spike before those two, and a small spike after them.
It is natural for virus mutations to result in less deadly variants, and that trend has nothing to do with vaccines.
