SUMMARY:
Joe Biden relied heavily on four extremely unusual vote updates to provide a much-needed boost in the early hours of November 4th. If these four "vote dumps" involved fraud, Joe Biden may have lost the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, based on legal votes alone. And he would have 42 fewer Electoral votes — putting Biden below the number required to win the Presidency.
Late on election night 2020, President Donald Trump had a lead of 100,000 votes in Wisconsin, a lead of 300,000 votes in Michigan, and a lead of 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania.
By the early hours of the following morning, Wisconsin had flipped blue, as did Michigan soon after. A few days later, Georgia and Pennsylvania followed.
A 95% Biden update is possible. Above 95% is very unlikely, even from a "solid blue" city, such as San Francisco.
Four vote total updates (aka "vote dumps"), that failed to follow the same pattern as the vast majority of the 8,950 others, more than accounted for the apparent BIDEN margin of victory in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia.
Roughly 15% of the vote updates in the data set of 8,954 were from THOSE three key states. If we assumed it equally likely that any particular state should end up at any of these extreme points, there is a 1% chance these three states would occupy five out of the top seven spots.
IJoe Biden’s "victory" in all three of these key states relied on four of the seven most extreme vote updates in the entire data set of 8,954 vote updates.
It is rare for a vote update to both have an extreme ratio favoring one candidate, and an extreme margin between the vote numbers. But these did.
To accept the results in Michigan as legitimate, for one example, you need to believe that the one or two most possible pro-Biden areas of the state were somehow combined in one or two vote updates. It is surprising we do not see any smaller vote updates which favored Biden more heavily.
DETAILS:
In the early hours of November 4th, 2020, Joe Biden received several large "vote dumps" in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia. These updates were unusually large and unusually one sided. Publicly available data from the New York Times allowed analysis of all 8,954 individual vote updates in their database.
Seven vote updates were unusual. Four of those, two in Michigan, one in Wisconsin, and one in Georgia, were the most unusual, and all four occurred within the same five hour middle of the night window.
The four decisive updates that gave Biden the lead were the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 7th most anomalous updates in the data set:
An update in Michigan listed as of 3:50AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 54,497 votes for Joe Biden and 4,718 votes for Donald Trump.
An update in Michigan listed as of 6:31AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 141,258 votes for Joe Biden and 5,968 votes for Donald Trump
An update in Wisconsin listed as 3:42AM Central Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 143,379 votes for Joe Biden and 25,163 votes for Donald Trump
A vote update in Georgia listed at 1:34AM Eastern Time on November 4th, 2020, which shows 136,155 votes for Joe Biden and 29,115 votes for Donald Trump
Note that most observations in the scatter plot in the above chart follow a basic contour.
FOUR EXCEPTIONS:
MICHIGAN:
A vote update -- 54,497 for Biden and 4,718 for Trump -- arrived at 3:50am ET on November 4th 2020. It is the second-largest vote margin of Biden’s, at 49,779, and also has the second largest Biden:Trump ratio at 11.55 to 1.
In the top right corner, that update, at (135,290, 3.164) nearly eliminated Trump’s lead in one shot. It arrived at 6:31am ET on November 4th, and went 141,258 for Biden to 5,968 for Trump — representing the largest vote margin for Biden , at 135,290, while also representing, by a factor of more than 2, the largest Biden:Trump ratio, at a whopping 23.67 to 1 This is the single most anomalous vote update in the nation.
This update also had 2,546 non-two-party votes, while Donald Trump only has 5,968. That was exceptionally poor performance of Trump relative to the non-two-party vote. it is hard to believe. This vote update only favored Trump over the non-two-party vote by less than 2.5 to 1, when the statewide ratio was over 31 to 1.
WISCONSIN:
The update in the top right, at (118,215, 1.74) arrived at 3:42am CST on November 4th, and went 143,379 for Biden to 25,163 for Trump, giving a margin of 118,215 and a Biden:Trump ratio of about 5.7 to 1 — about 3 times larger than the update with the next largest margin (which was 39,499).
GEORGIA:
(136,155, 1.543) arrived at 1:34am EST on November 4th, is the update with the largest margin of all of the updates in Georgia — it also has the 10th largest Biden:Trump ratio.
