Very Surprising Early Voting Results !

This blog was started 

in early 2016, because the 

2016 election campaigns

seemed like a circus to me.

I expected 

to close the blog

after the election ... 

but the circus

never ended.

This will be my only article 

about the 2018 election 

before the results are known.

Predicting is usually 

a waste of time.

I never expected Trump

to win in 2016.

This article is not a prediction.

It is about early voting trends,

based on real data.

If it was up to me, there would not 

be any early voting, except for 

the US military outside the US.

But it's not up to me !

There is early voting, and 

we can analyze it to determine 

any unexpected trends for the

upcoming election.

Predictions for 2016, 

including my own, 

were that Trump was "killed" 

by the October Surprise 

Billy Bush "sex" videotape,

so crooked Hillary 

was going to win. 

Trump as president, 

followed by 

a big corporate tax cut, 

was a pipe dream 

at the time.

I was not a Trump fan, and did not

vote for him, but also thought 

anyone was better than 

congenital liar Hillary.

Almost all the polls at the time 

showed Hillary in the lead, 

and it's just about impossible 

for nearly all of them to be wrong,

or so we thought.

We later learned why

almost all the polls 

were wrong,

and it's obvious

in hindsight -- 

the Dumbocrats 

had so demonized Trump 

( and they still do) 

that a small percentage

of eventual Trump voters

refused to tell anyone 

they planned 

to vote for Trump

... but they did.

So keep that in mind when

you hear about polls this 

year -- maybe some people

in 2018 are reluctant to admit 

they plan to vote for Republicans?

The long introduction was to 

tell you I no longer trust polls,

and won't report on them here.

But I do trust data, 

and we have data

for early voting, 

through Monday

October 22, 2018:

Over 5 million votes 

had already been cast 

in the midterm elections

as of Monday, 

October 22, 2018.

As a libertarian, who doesn't vote

for Dumbocrats or Republicans,

I try to be neutral and unbiased,

but that has been impossible 

since the day in 2015 

when Donald and Melania Trump 

came down the escalator 

in Trump Tower.

The Dumbocrats, 

losing power 

at an unprecidented rate 

since the 2010 elections, 

morphed into an angry,

socialist party in late 2015, 

which is counterproductive 

for winning elections !

After their vicious, false attacks

on Judge Kavanaugh in 2018,

well documented in this blog, 

I decided to call them the 

"Dumbocrats" -- their false 

charges fell apart faster than 

a cheap suitcase, showing 

a lack of intelligence, and 

Kavanaugh became a Justice

anyway, showing a lack of

effectiveness.

The Dumbocrats made 

Republicans very angry 

just before an election.

If that's not dumb,

I don't know what is !

I got angry too -- and I've only 

voted one time for a Republican,

in my entire life ( and I just turned 45,

plus 20 )

The "caravan" from central America

seems to be the "October Surprise"

for 2018, but the laws, and court 

interpretations of them, force Trump

into the same "catch and release"

nonsense that Obama used. 

Unless Trump orders the military

to shoot the all the "invaders"

with rubber bullets ... 

( I would -- that would be cheaper 

than any wall, and end the chronic

problem immediately -- try to break

into the US, and we'll use you for 

target practice -- so I guess that I

won't be winning any elections ! ),

... the Republicans will see 

the mysterious migrants

just waltz in to the US, 

realize they'll never show up 

in immigration court 

after the "catch and release",

( where 80% would not have 

received refugee status ) 

and they will never leave ... 

so the caravan just serves

to remind Republicans 

what a Dumbocrat 

"open border policy" 

really means for the US !

Republicans don't like open borders.

I don't like open borders either.

But Democrats do, even if they 

keep quiet about that subject

in the weeks before an election. 

The Kavanaugh debacle, 
and the mysterious 

migrant caravan,  

are two factors

most likely causing

Republican turnout for the

November 6 midterm vote 

to be much higher 

than polls predicted.

The Kavanaugh confirmation 

debacle even managed to alienate

Republicans and independents

who did NOT vote for Trump in 2016.

Republican-affiliated voters 

are outpacing the

Democratic-affiliated voters 

in early voting 

in seven closely watched 

battleground states. 

Data from TargetSmart, 

analyzed by left-leaning 

NBC's Data Lab, 

assuming that

people registered with 

a specific party, will vote

for that party's candidates. 

Democratic candidates 

have already fallen behind 

in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, 

Indiana, Montana, Tennessee 

and Texas. 

The only battleground state 

where early voting Democrats 

outnumbered their Republican 

peers was Nevada.

Early vote data

confirm a surge in 

interest among 

Republican voters, 

previously reported by 

the Wall Street Journal 

and others, which has 

translated into more 

Republican early voting.

Dumbocrat's beliefs 

of a coming "blue wave" 

in the midterm elections, 

which would be typical 

of midterm elections,

appear to be 

wishful thinking.

Republicans typically 
dominate early voting 
by absentee ballots, 

while Democrats 
tend to have 

the advantage 
with in-person 

early voting. 

(1)

In Arizona, 

Republican-affiliated 

early voters 

outnumbered 

Democrat-affiliated 

early voters 

by 11 percentage points

( 44% minus 33% ):

In Arizona, early voters had:

44% Republican affiliation, 

33% Democrat affiliation. 

23% other ( not affiliated with either major party )

(2)

In Indiana:

51% Republican

39% Democrat 

10% other

(3)

In Montana:

46% Republican

29% Democrat

25% other 

(4)

In Tennessee:

63% Republican

30% Democrat

  7% other

(5)

In Texas:

53% Republican 

43% Democrat

  4% other

(6)

In Georgia:

52% Republican

43% Democrat

  5% other

(7)

in Nevada:

45% Democrat

38% Republican 

18% other

Note:

for Florida 

early voting data

are not complete, 

because in-person

early voting, 

which typically 

favors Democrats,

had not yet begun:

In Florida: 

44% Republican, 

38% Democrat 

18% other

Women outnumber men 

in early voting 

in nearly all of the states 

seeing a Republican surge.

Women early voters 

outpaced men voters,

so far, in Florida: 

( 55% to 45% )

and in Georgia: 

( 54% to 46% )

and in Indiana:

(53% to 46% )

and in Montana:

( 49% to 48% )

and in Tennessee:

( 52% to 48% )

and in Texas:

( 59% to 41% )

Male early voters 

outpaced women

early voters, 

so far in Nevada: 

( 49% to 47% ) 

And the sexes 

were even 

in Arizona

early voting: 

( 48% to 48% )